Case Study
Mega-Satellite Constellations
Read More
Key Idea Description
Performance Optimization in satellite mega-constellations through flexible multi-layer staged deployment under demand uncertainty. This study employs real options analysis to design and evaluate multi-layer deployment strategies that reduce lifecycle costs and enhance system resilience by minimizing reconfiguration costs and enabling capacity expansion as demand evolves.
- Broad Area: Satellite Constellations, Internet Services, Space Systems Engineering, Strategic Deployment, Real Options Analysis.
- Main issues of case: The study addresses challenges in accommodating uncertain demand for global internet services, high reconfiguration costs, and optimizing deployment strategies to balance cost and capacity expansion over time.
- Main analytic topics: Utilizes real options analysis and Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate economic performance, optimize deployment strategies, and assess the value of flexibility in multi-layered satellite constellations.
Insights
- There is a need to devise decision support tools (DST) to enable better communication, visualization, and decision-making in early design & planning
- DST software provide an overlay to advanced techno-economic models that enable quantification of design solutions, and stress-testing
Training
Relevant lectures:
- Paradigm change in engineering systems and planning
- How to optimise design and decision-making under uncertainty
- How to manage the design process
Abstract
Summary
Introduction:
The study by Joshua F. Anderson, Michel-Alexandre Cardin, and Paul T. Grogan explores the design and analysis of flexible multi-layer staged deployment (MLSD) for satellite mega-constellations to address demand uncertainty for global broadband internet systems. This approach aims to enhance flexibility and cost-efficiency compared to traditional single-layer staged deployment (SLSD).
Context:
Demand Uncertainty: Future demand for internet access from space is highly uncertain, posing financial risks for traditional deployment strategies.
Flexibility Benefits: Flexibility in deployment allows the system to adapt to actual market conditions, reducing unused capacity and spreading costs over time.
Methodology:
Staged Deployment Framework:
The framework models and compares traditional, SLSD, and MLSD systems, evaluating the economic value of flexibility.
Real Options Analysis (ROA): Quantifies the value of flexibility by comparing the expected lifecycle cost (ELCC) of different deployment strategies.
Key Findings:
- Cost Savings: MLSD reduces the ELCC by 42.8% compared to traditional deployment and by 22.9% compared to SLSD.
- Optimal Strategies: Optimal MLSD strategies feature small, low-power satellites deployed in multiple layers, enabling higher adaptability and cost savings.
Case Studies:
Four case studies were conducted to analyze the value of flexibility (VoF) in SLSD and MLSD under different scenarios:
- Nominal Case: Demonstrated the significant cost savings of MLSD.
- Variable Discount Rate: Showed increasing VoF with higher discount rates.
- Variable Reconfiguration Cost: Highlighted MLSD’s resilience to high reconfiguration costs.
- Variable Volatility: Confirmed increasing VoF with higher demand volatility.
Mechanisms Affecting VoF:
- Low-Capacity vs. High-Capacity Orbital Shells: High-capacity shells are more cost-effective initially.
- Capacity Jump and Launch Costs: Smaller capacity jumps lead to higher launch costs due to inefficient payload utilization.
- Reconfiguration Costs: MLSD reduces reconfiguration costs by deploying new layers instead of reconfiguring existing satellites.
Conclusion:
The study concludes that MLSD is a promising approach for satellite mega-constellations, offering significant cost savings and improved adaptability to demand uncertainty. This approach supports better resource utilization and financial sustainability, potentially expanding global internet access.