Case Study
Highway Design for Uncertain Mobility Patterns
image by Nick Fewings @ Unsplash
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Key Idea Description
Resilience in highway design under the context of uncertain mobility patterns, focusing on the A15 highway project in Zurich. The study employs a quantitative evaluation method using real options to assess highway designs that can accommodate future uncertainties in vehicle types and traffic volumes. Emphasizing the adaptability of infrastructure, the research highlights how flexible design strategies can enhance economic viability and ensure sustainable functionality in evolving transportation scenarios.
- Broad Area: Infrastructure design, Transport, Highways, Infrastructure Resilience, Transportation Engineering, Urban Planning, Sustainable Development.
- Main issues of case: Capacity expansion, Allocation of capacity to different uses, Special facilities, Charging station, Autonomous vehicles
- Main analytic topics: Simulation, Presentation of outcomes, Trigger for Exercise of Flexibility, Time to Implementation time, Real options analysis, Scenario Planning
Insights
- Adaptive Infrastructure Design: The case study emphasizes the necessity of designing highways with built-in adaptability to efficiently manage and respond to future technological shifts and uncertainties in traffic patterns. Incorporating flexibility in the initial design, such as provisions for charging stations and autonomous vehicle lanes, ensures that the highway can adapt to changing demands without extensive overhauls, reducing long-term costs and disruptions.
- Strategic Implementation Timing: Highlighting the importance of timely decision-making in infrastructure projects, the research demonstrates how identifying optimal triggers for implementing flexibility measures can significantly enhance project outcomes. By effectively timing these adaptations, such as expanding capacity or reallocating lanes based on real-time data and forecasts, the project can maximize efficiency and minimize the risk associated with premature or delayed actions.
Training
Relevant lectures:
- Paradigm change in engineering systems and planning
- How to optimise design and decision-making under uncertainty
- How to manage the design process
Gallery
Abstract
Summary
Introduction to Highway Design Under Uncertainty
This technical case study by Martani, Eberle, and Adey examines the application of real options analysis in the design of the A15 highway, exploring how future uncertainties in mobility patterns can be managed through flexible infrastructure design. The study presents a method to quantitatively evaluate different design strategies under uncertain future traffic demands.
Understanding the Project’s Scope
The study is centered on a segment of the A15 highway in Zurich, Switzerland, planned to accommodate both current and future traffic needs. This approach acknowledges the dynamic nature of urban development and the potential for significant shifts in vehicle technology and usage patterns, including the rise of autonomous and electric vehicles.
Financial and Technical Analysis
Net Present Value (NPV) Analysis:
- Base Case: Initial analysis under static conditions shows an NPV of $36.2 million, utilizing a 3% discount rate, highlighting the potential financial viability of the project.
- Base Case with Uncertainty: Incorporating variability in factors like traffic volume and technology adoption shows a more conservative NPV, suggesting greater financial risk under fluctuating conditions.
Flexibility in Highway Design
The study evaluates several design options to understand how flexibility can be incorporated effectively:
- Limited Flexibility: Initial designs that consider minimal adaptability to future changes, focusing on immediate needs.
- High Flexibility: Designs that include provisions for easy modification to infrastructure, allowing for adjustments based on actual future developments, which could include expanding road capacity or integrating new technologies.
Economic Performance
- Initial NPV: $36.2 million under base conditions.
- Adjusted NPV: Reflects increased risk under variable conditions, underscoring the need for designs that can adapt to changes in traffic volume and technology.
Implications for Infrastructure Planning
This case highlights the importance of forward-thinking in infrastructure development, especially in rapidly evolving urban and technological landscapes. By employing real options analysis, planners and engineers can design highways that are both robust and adaptable, ensuring they remain valuable and functional as mobility patterns evolve.
Conclusion
The study underscores the value of integrating flexibility and real options analysis into highway design. By planning for multiple future scenarios, the design process can significantly reduce the risk of obsolescence and increase the infrastructure’s long-term value. This approach not only meets the immediate needs but also provides a framework for adapting to future changes in technology and traffic patterns, potentially saving costs and improving functionality over the highway’s lifecycle.