Strategic Engineering

Motivation

As Artemis-era missions advance toward sustained lunar presence, reliance on Earth-based logistics threatens long-term economic and environmental viability. High launch costs, schedule risk, and supply-chain fragility create strong incentives for in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) and in-space manufacturing (ISM). This research was motivated by NASA and JAXA’s strategic objective to integrate local manufacturing into lunar base design. The authors aimed to create a decision-support framework capable of quantifying how stochastic (uncertain) system parameters—such as launch delays, yield reliability, and material transport efficiency—affect mission sustainability and infrastructure planning .

Methodologies

• Stochastic System Modeling: Developed a probabilistic model integrating resource availability, manufacturing yield, and transport reliability. Random variables capture uncertainty in regolith processing rates, additive manufacturing downtime, and launch cadence.
• Monte Carlo Simulation: 10,000 simulated mission scenarios were generated to assess lifecycle cost and reliability distributions for three infrastructure strategies: fully Earth-launched, hybrid (Earth + lunar), and fully lunar-manufactured systems (Fig. 3–4, pp. 468–470).
• Decision Tree & Real Options Framework: Embedded flexible decision points—e.g., “expand ISM capacity” or “fallback to Earth supply”—to evaluate adaptive responses under uncertainty.
• Comparative Life-Cycle Analysis (LCA): Quantified CO₂-equivalent emissions and energy consumption for each supply pathway. Hybrid scenarios achieved the lowest lifecycle footprint (Fig. 7, p. 474).
• Sensitivity Analysis: Identified key drivers of performance, including additive manufacturing yield (±15%) and launch failure probability (0.5–3%).

Insights

• Performance Gains: Hybrid ISM systems yielded the highest Expected NPV, balancing risk and resource efficiency. Total mission cost decreased by 28%, and system-level payload mass dropped by 42% (Fig. 8, p. 475).
• Risk Management: Flexibility to expand ISM capacity or delay construction under uncertain yields improved downside risk by 35%. This confirms that stochastic modelling provides a robust framework for resilient lunar system design.
• Strategic Implication: ISM is not merely a technological capability but an economic risk hedge, enabling sustainable and adaptive lunar infrastructure over multi-decade horizons.

Training

Relevant lectures and skills:

• Stochastic System Modeling
• Monte Carlo Simulation
• Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) for Space Systems
• Real Options Analysis for Mission Design
• Multi-Objective Optimization
• In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) and ISM Technology Readiness

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