Case Study
Selenological Survey Using Satellite-Based Ground Penetrating Radars
Gregory Eslinger
December 2024
This study examines potential options for the deployment of a lunar satellite equipped with a space-based ground-penetrating radar system. The purpose of this radar system is to improve our understanding of the Moon’s subsurface. This study explores multiple types of technical and real options and flexibilities that could be employed to improve the likelihood of a successful mission while reducing costs.
image by NISAR
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Motivation
The study focuses on enhancing lunar exploration through ground-penetrating radar, inspired by gaps in understanding the Moon’s subsurface. Improved understanding of the Moon’s subsurface has implications for lunar habitation, exploration, and science. The proposed system builds upon NASA and ISRO’s NISAR mission, and examines a possible deployment of a radar-equipped satellite in lunar orbit.
Methodologies
- Net Present Value (NPV): The baseline model evaluates the project’s financial viability, considering costs and expected returns over its lifecycle.
- Monte Carlo Simulation: “Five uncertainties are identified and compared with a sensitivity analysis which reveal that the radar target reflectivity and scientific discount rate are the most impactful uncertainties on the mission’s value. A series of Monte Carlo simulations reveal the baseline mission has a 29% chance of failing to yield scientific value due to altitude constraints.” (Abstract, p. 2)
- Real Options Analysis: “Real technical options are explored in order to reduce this risk; this risk can be reduced by adding an additional transmitter operating in a different power and/or wavelength. Real options are also explored for managing the mission’s lifetime: a satellite with a five-year design life and the option to deploy a second satellite both out-performs and potentially costs less than a single satellite with a ten-year design life.” (Abstract, p. 2)
Insights
- Leverage Technical Flexibility: Adding high-power or dual-band transmitters significantly reduces mission failure risks while increasing potential scientific returns.
- Leverage Temporal Flexibility: A satellite with a 5-year design life and an option for a follow-on mission outperforms a single 10-year satellite in scientific value and cost efficiency.
- Flexibility as Risk Management: Flexibility in design mitigates critical risks like radar performance issues and spacecraft failures, enhancing mission robustness.
Training
Relevant lectures:
- Paradigm change in engineering systems and planning
- How to optimise design and decision-making under uncertainty
- How to manage the design process
