Case Study
Blue Hydrogen Production Systems Economic Performance – Centralized vs Decentralized
Davis Bigestans, Michel-Alexandre Cardin, Nikolaos Kazantzis
2023
This study evaluates centralized and decentralized blue hydrogen production systems, applying flexible design approaches to enhance adaptability under uncertainty. A techno-economic framework is used to assess real options and optimize decision-making for hydrogen deployment in transportation.
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Motivation
“Blue hydrogen is a crucial element in decarbonizing energy systems. Flexible designs mitigate market and regulatory risks, improving economic resilience.” (Abstract, p. 1)
Methodologies
- Real Option Analysis: “Strategic design flexibility enhances adaptability to uncertain conditions, enabling optimized decision-making under various scenarios.” (Introduction, p. 3)
- Monte Carlo Simulation: “Evaluates thousands of stochastic scenarios to understand the impact of uncertainties like hydrogen demand and CO2 pricing.” (Methodology, p. 7)
- Sensitivity Analysis: “Identifies how key variables (e.g., demand volatility, economies of scale) influence system outcomes, guiding robust design choices.” (Results, p. 9)
Insights
- Centralized vs. Decentralized: “Flexible centralized systems achieve higher economic performance, while decentralized designs excel in handling greater uncertainty.” (Discussion, p. 15)
- Climate Resilience: “Innovative hydrogen production strategies provide economic and environmental benefits under evolving regulatory landscapes.” (Conclusion, p. 23)
Training
Relevant lectures:
- Paradigm change in engineering systems and planning
- How to optimise design and decision-making under uncertainty
- How to manage the design process
